The election campaign began in earnest with Tuesday’s budget, Joe Oliver’s first and Stephen Harper’s last before the writ drops in September for the October 19 election.
And the crucial battleground is the Greater Toronto Area, with 54 seats in the new House. Think of it as the third-largest province in the country after Ontario and Quebec. From 905 to 416 — this is the GTA election.
There will be 29 seats in suburban 905 (up from 22) and 25 in urban 416 (up from 23). Winner takes all.
Some underestimate the discipline involved, suggesting that budgets ‘balance themselves.’ They do not understand what it takes or why it matters so much. Perhaps they never will.
For openers, Oliver sounded a grace note in his budget speech. “I cannot go further,” he said, “without saluting the man who — through fiscal acumen careful stewardship and love of country — can take so much credit for this: my predecessor, Jim Flaherty.”
What he inherited from Flaherty was the projection of a balanced budget with a surplus of $6.4 billion in the current fiscal year and $31.9 billion over five years.
Balanced Budget Rationale
Instead, Oliver is looking at a surplus of just $1.4 billion this year and $13.1 billion projected over five years. That’s $5 billion below Flaherty’s forecast for this fiscal, and nearly $19 billion below his five-year outlook.
What happened in the interim, of course, was oil’s stunning drop from $100-per-barrel to $50, which blew a gaping hole in the fiscal framework, with foregone revenues to the federal treasury of about $8 billion. The first $5 billion of the shortfall is visible in this year’s smaller surplus.
And the remaining impact of crashing oil prices is covered by some unusual accounting by Finance. Oliver took $2 billion from the contingency reserve and $2.2 billion from the $3.2 billion from the sale of the government’s GM shares left over from the 2009 auto bailout.
Et voila, a balanced budget, one that also covers the $5 billion family tax package that was pre-announced last October, when Finance was projecting oil at $80 a barrel.
Not that voters talk about balanced budgets as a public policy priority. But it plays well with the Conservative base. Equally far down the list of voter priorities is Oliver’s “balanced budget legislation,” to apply in all times and circumstances except recession and war.
Actually, Canada is at war with ISIL in Iraq and Syria, as Oliver pointedly declared in his speech. “The jihadist terrorists,” he said, “… have declared war on Canada and Canadians by name. In response, we have taken up the fight both overseas and here at home.” Without faulting Oliver’s good intentions, balanced budget legislation is widely dismissed as a gimmick. But again, it does play well with the orthodox Conservative base.
Speaking of budgetary balance, Oliver said “some underestimate the discipline involved, suggesting that budgets ‘balance themselves.’ They do not understand what it takes or why it matters so much. Perhaps they never will.” This was a not-even-thinly-veiled reference to Justin Trudeau and one of his verbal miscues. It’s one thing to take Trudeau on with this line in question period or Standing Order 31 statements by MPs — it’s unusual to bring an opposition leader into a budget speech.
Changes to Expect
Having established the balanced budget credentials, Oliver moved on to re-announcing the Family Pack — income splitting, enhanced child care benefits, the child care expense credit and the child fitness tax credit, all of which were announced by Stephen Harper last October 30 at an event in 905.
For good measure, Oliver confirmed a doubling of Tax Free Savings Account contributions to a $10,000 per year ceiling from $5,000 in 2011. There’s no doubt of TFSA’s popularity — 11 million Canadians have opened accounts since Flaherty introduced them in 2009.
The increased TFSA contribution limit is about the only thing in this budget for singles without kids. Otherwise, it’s not for millennials.
As Oliver put it, leaving subtlety aside: “Raising a family is hard work and, unlike our opponents, we prefer to leave it to the experts, Mom and Dad.”
Consider the increase in the Universal Child Care Benefit from $100 to $160 a month, retroactive to January. The first seven months increase of $420 will arrive in a single payment in July — just in time for summer holidays and only two months before the writ.
For openers, Oliver sounded a grace note in his budget speech. “I cannot go further,” he said, “without saluting the man who — through fiscal acumen careful stewardship and love of country — can take so much credit for this: my predecessor, Jim Flaherty.”
Income-splitting, styled the Family Tax Cut, will allow couples with children below age 18 to receive a benefit capped at $2,000.
This is all for the GTA, particularly 905, and Conservative MPs say the family tax package plays very well at the door. Income-splitting may be a tax break for the rich — and it may be that only 15 per cent of Canadians will receive it — but most of them live in 905 and other suburbs of Canada’s major cities. No political party will rescind the UCCB increase.
And for downtown 416, there’s stuff like $25 million for Harbourfront over five years. There’s $1 billion a year over five years for a Public Transit Fund. There’s a photo op in that for Oliver and Transport Minister Lisa Raitt, co-starring Toronto Mayor John Tory, coming to a TTC subway station near you.
Finally, for seniors, there’s a Home Accessibility Tax Credit. Let’s call it the Mobile Staircase/Safe Shower Fund. Thirty-second spots for all news channels to follow.
Re-published in partnership with iPolitics.ca
